Some people get a little foamy at the mouth at the prospect of the judges’ save. Last night, Big Mike Lynche got the lowest number of votes, but was saved by the judges, setting up a double-elimination next week. In previous seasons, many argued that the save was unfair, that the network was putting its thumb on the scale. But ultimately, the save is meaningless. Here’s why.
Do you know how many times an eventual winner has finished in the bottom two at this stage of the competition? None. It’s never happened. In fact, no winner has ever finished in the bottom two before the Top 7 week. Winners don’t build over the course of the season — Idol rewards frontrunners, and the eventual winners are popular from the start. They don’t tell you who has the highest number of votes each week, but they don’t need to — just look for the people who are never in the bottom. Those are the only people with a chance to win.
Think I’m exaggerating? How about this fact: Fantasia Barrino was the only winner ever to be in the bottom two at any point before the finals. In seven of the eight seasons of the show, the eventual winner was never in danger of leaving, and Fantasia’s Top 7 hiccup occurred when she and America were cruelly subjected to Barry Manilow week.
So Big Mike may stay around for another week, or even another four or five, but he’s not going to win. Tim, who’s been on the brink of elimination twice, can expect an early exit. Andrew, buddy? You’re done too. Watch the bottom two in the coming weeks, because the single most significant key to determining the final winner is who doesn’t get a whiff of failure. In fact, only two runners-up ever finished in the bottom two before the Top 7 (Katharine McPhee and Bo Bice), and each of them only once.
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